我国碳排放轨迹呈现库兹涅茨倒U型吗?——基于不同区域经济发展与碳排放关系分析

Does the Carbon Emissions Trajectory of Our Country Present Kuznets Inverted U Curve?——Based on the Relationship of Regional Economic Development and Carbon Emission

本文在Copeland&Taylor(2009)模型的基础上,建立了碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的理论模型,利用《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中所提供的基准方法,测算了全国31个省、直辖市和自治区的碳排放量,选用1997～2008年的面板数据,采用可行广义最小二乘方法,全面分析了我国、东部、中部和西部的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性,并计算了达到拐点时的实际人均收入水平和需要的时间。研究结果表明,在我国、东部和中部均存在碳排放库兹涅茨曲线,理论拐点对应的收入分别是3313.05、4105.17和2751.78元。但是,西部地区碳排放强度和实际人均收入水平呈正U型关系,且理论拐点是1423.52元。本文得出的结论对我国低碳经济的发展具有较强的政策启示性。

Based on the Copeland and Taylor（2009）model, this paper builds the EKC theory model which an- alyzes the path of CO2 emission in China, According the method provided by ＂IPCC Guidelines for National Green-house Gas Inventories＂, this paper estimates quantity of CO2 emission of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, uses the panel data from 1997 to 2008 and EGLS method to analyze if the CO2 emission EKC exists in our nation, eastern, central and western areas, and calculate the real per capita income and time to reach inflection point. The research result shows： the CO2 emission EKC exists in our nation, eastern and central areas, the income of theory inflection point are 3313.05,4105.17 and 2751.78RMB. But in the western area, the relation-ship between carbon emission intensity and the real per capita income level presents positive U, and the income of theory inflection point is 1423.52 RMB. The Conclusions of this paper will play an important role in the development of low-carbon emission economy in our nation.