人民币升值能够有效改善美中贸易逆差吗?——基于美国和中国统计数据的比较分析

Do RMB Appreciation to Alleviate the U.S.Trade Deficit with China? ——Based on the Statistical Data of the United States and China

本文从中国和美国统计的中美贸易差额数据和人民币汇率这一全新的视角对人民币汇率与中美贸易差额之间是否存在协整关系,以及人民币升值能否有效改善贸易收支进行了实证分析,发现基于中国统计的中美贸易差额与人民币汇率并不存在显著的协整关系,而基于美国统计的中美贸易差额与人民币汇率之间却存在显著的协整关系,且人民币升值在长期内能够有效改善美中贸易赤字。但进一步的短期误差修正模型表明,短期内人民币升值并不能改善美中贸易逆差,反而会在一定程度上加剧美中贸易逆差。相应的脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析显示,长期内人民币汇率对改善美中贸易逆差具有不可或缺的重要作用。这一实证结果表明人民币升值改善贸易收支的理论在我国并不成立,而在美国长期内却是成立的。

From a new view point,this thesis research on RMB exchange rate and Sino-us trade balance based on the statistical data of the United States and China.We found that Between RMB exchange rate and Sino-us trade balance does not exist obvious co-integration relationship with statistic data from China,but exist obvious co-integration relationship from United States,and RMB revaluation can improve Sino-us trade balance in the long term.Further short-term error correction model shows that the RMB appreciation will not alleviate u.s.-china trade deficit in short-term,in a certain extent aggravate the U.S.trade deficit with China,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.But the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis shows that RMB exchange rate to improve the U.S.trade deficit with China is an indispensable role.The empirical results show that the theory of RMB revaluation improve trade balance is supported in the United States,but not supported in our country.