服务业发展能烫平宏观经济波动吗?——基于中国数据的研究

Can the Development of Service Industry Smooth the Economic Fluctuations?

为了研究服务业在烫平宏观经济波动中的作用,我们建立了以人力资本为投入要素的服务业的真实经济周期模型,运用我国1978-2009年的年度数据,验证了服务业所具有的稳定器功能,即就业的强稳定性和产出的弱稳定性。随着宏观经济的稳定趋强,服务业自身的稳定性具有动态的自我强化性。在结构上,随着服务业比重的上升,当宏观经济稳定性弱时,服务业的发展加大了宏观经济的波动;而在宏观经济稳定性强时,则它增强了宏观经济的稳定。分析还表明,服务业稳定总就业的幅度比制造业要小。这可能是因为我国处于工业化中期的国情所致,即制造业在现阶段依旧是我国维持就业稳定的主要力量。

In order to study the role of the service industry played in smoothing macro-economic fluctuations,this paper establishes a model of real economic cycle of the service industry with human capital as the input factor.By making use of the annual data of China between 1978 and 2009,it tries to verify the stabilizing function of the service industry,i.e.the strong stability of employment and the weak stability of output.Along with the tendency of stabilization of the macro-economy,the self stability of the service industry has a dynamic self strengthening.Structurally,with the increasing share of the service industry,when the stability of the macro-economy is weak,the development of the service industry will amplify the economic fluctuations;when the stability is strong,it will strengthen the stability.The analysis also shows that the scale of the stable aggregate employment of the service industry is smaller than that of the manufacturing industry,indicating that China is still on its way of industrialization process,i.e.the manufacturing industry is still the main force to maintain the employment stabilization.