唐山市耕地占用与经济发展关系分析

Analysis on the Relation between Farmland Conversion and Economic Development of Tangshan City

研究目的:采用改良的脱钩理论对唐山市历年及未来耕地占用与非农GDP之间关系进行分析,指导城市化、工业化过程中的耕地保护问题。研究方法:改良脱钩理论的脱钩指标计算模型和增长经济理论模型,定性与定量相结合。研究结果:(1)唐山市2000—2009年耕地占用与非农GDP呈现出不同的脱钩状态,原因也不尽相同;(2)唐山市未来经济发展中,脱钩指标分别为0.29和0.03,耕地占用压力仍然存在。研究结论:改良后的脱钩指标更加合理且与增长经济学理论相结合,不仅能够真实、准确反映唐山市耕地占用与经济发展的关系,而且有利于认识"双保"工程,指导耕地保护工作。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relation between farmland conversion for urban development and non-agricultural GDP of Tangshan City via the modified decoupling theory so as to provide suggestions for solving the farmland preservation problems during urbanization and industrialization. Methods employed are the model of decoupling index calculation and the theoretical model of economics growth based on the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results indicate that （1） from 2000 to 2009, the farmland occupation and non-agricultural GDP were differently decoupled due to various reasons in Tangshan City;（2） the decoupling indices of future economic development of Tangshan City are 0.29 and 0.03 respectively, which means that there is still the pressure of farmland occupation. It is concluded that the modified decoupling indices are more feasible and can combined well with the economics growth theory, which can not only correctly reflect the relation between farmland conversion and economic development, but also are helpful to acknowledge the project of “protecting the farmland and ensuring the economicgrowth” , as well as to guide the administration affairs of farmland preservation.