湖北省棉花洪涝灾害风险分析

Flood risk analysis in cotton for Hubei Province

为准确和定量的评估洪涝灾害对棉花造成的风险,减少洪涝灾害对湖北省棉花造成严重影响和重大损失,以湖北省3个农业气象观测站近30年的气象资料和生育期资料,对湖北省洪涝风险进行了研究。结果表明:洪涝指数与降水距平百分率和降水标准化序列相关性显著。洪涝指数的计算过程涉及多个参数,运算过程复杂,而降水距平百分率和降水标准化计算相对容易,且数据容易获得,所以定义降水距平百分率或降水标准化作为划分洪涝致灾的指标。以此指标将洪涝导致减产的风险数值化,得到因洪涝导致减产的风险值分别为:襄樊10.5%,麻城16.1%,荆州4.2%。麻城棉花风险值最大,需要做好洪涝的防范措施。

In order to estimate flood risk posed to cotton accurately and quantitatively,and reduce the heavy losses of cotton due to flooding in Hubei Province,the risk of flooding is studied based upon the meteorological and cotton data in nearly 30 years from three stations of this province.The results showed that flooding index was significantly correlated with precipitation anomaly percentage and standardization precipitation.It was easy to obtain precipitation anomaly percentage and standardized precipitation.But it was more difficult to calculate the flooding index since they contained a number of parameters.The precipitation anomaly percentage was therefore defined as the flood hazard standard.Based upon the weighted flood standards during cotton growth period,the numerical data of flooding risk were as foloowing：Xiangfan10.5%,Macheng 16.1%,Jingzhou 4.2%.It was evident that Macheng cotton was at the highest risk and needed to take measures.