海洋环境保护经济损益评估——以珠江口及毗邻海域为例

Loss and benefit assessment on marine environment protection——a case Pearl River Estuary and adjacent area

基于计量经济学方法,首次计算了珠江口毗邻海域生态系统的经济价值和不同规划期的水污染经济损失,从而间接获得了碧海行动计划实施后将产生的经济效益数据,结合计划投资,对珠江口毗邻海域碧海行动计划的经济损益进行了评估。结果显示,珠江口毗邻海域总经济价值为2015亿元/a,现状由于水污染造成的经济损失高达332.9亿元/a,约占总经济价值量的16.5%;碧海行动计划实施后,经预测,不同规划期(2015年、2020年、2030年)内的水污染经济损失将分别减为:91、77和55亿元/a,产生的经济效益相应分别为241.9、255.9和277.9亿元/a。珠江口毗邻海域碧海行动计划投资项目的净现值为873.7亿元。

Total economic value of the ocean ecosystem in Pearl River Estuary and economic lost from the marine pollution were calculated based on the economics methods in this paper.It showed that total economic value of the ocean ecosystem in this region amounted to 2.015×105 million Yuan annually,and economic losses from the current pollution were estimated to be 3.32×104 million Yuan annually,which was 16.5% of the total economic value of the ecosystem.Further prediction showed that the economic losses from the marine pollution will drop to 9.1 103,7.7 103 and 5.5 103 million Yuan annually in 2015,2020 and 2030,respectively.In this case,annual benefits of 2.419×104,2.559×104 and 2.779×104 million Yuan are supposed to be obtained after the implementation of Blue Sea Plan and the net value of 8.737×104 million Yuan of this project was found in this paper.