开封市土地储备潜力规模研究

Research on the Potential Size of Land Banking in Kaifeng

合理的土地储备规模不仅能保障社会经济的发展,还能避免土地的闲置与浪费,因此研究土地储备规模具有重要意义。笔者通过运用GM(1,1)模型预测出,到2020年开封市新增城镇建设用地的需求规模及农业人口数量,结合开封市2006—2020年土地利用总体规划预测出目标年城镇建设用地的总供给规模,再基于集约节约利用方式,预测出未来可节约城镇建设用地的潜力,从而得出开封市在目标年的土地储备规模。根据本研究思路测算出,开封市2020年土地储备规模为26036.22hm(2含土地储备增量规模9990.35hm2和存量规模16045.87hm2),这对于开封市优先盘活存量土地,有效控制建设用地占用农用地具有重要的现实意义。

Reasonable land reserve scale can not only ensure the development of social economy, also can avoid land resources idle and wasted, so it is significant to study the scale of the land banking. The author used GM（1,1） model to predict the agricultural population and the demand scale of increasing town construction land by 2020 of Kaifeng, combine the 2006-2020 general land use planning of Kaifeng to predict the total supply scale of urban construction land at target year, and then base on the way of intensive and economical utilization to predict the saving potential of town construction land in the future, thus obtain the land reserve scale of Kaifeng on target year. According to the thinking of this research, it can measure the land reserve scale is 26036.22 hm 2 （the scale of incremental land is 9990.35 hm 2 and the stock land is 16045.87 hm 2 ） of Kaifeng in 2020. It has important actual significance for reinvigorating the stock land preferentially and controlling construction urban expansion effectively.