基于蒙特卡洛法的全寿命周期成本计算

Life Cycle Cost Computation Based on Monte Carlo Method

以高速公路生命进程为序,以时间点为界,把公路全寿命分为3个阶段:建设前期阶段,建设阶段,建设后阶段;包括4种成本:首善成本、作业成本、服务成本,声誉成本。借助Excel软件建立基于蒙特卡罗法的全寿命周期总成本计算模型,使得决策者清楚明了在一定的概率下,项目全寿命周期要多少成本。

The road life cycle is divided into three stages based on the life cycle of expressways and timing： the earlier building stage,the building stage and the later building stage,including four costs： the furthest cost,operation cost,service cost and reputation cost.With the help of Excel Software and based on Monte Carlo Method,a LCC-computing model is constructed,which makes clear for decision makers the cost of project life cycle with certain probability.