“刘易斯转折点悖论”与中国户籍—土地—财税制度联动改革

Paradox of "Lewis Turning Point" and Coordinated Reforms of China’s Hukou-Land-Fiscal System

对"刘易斯转折点"问题的讨论,应该超越人口学意义上的劳动力供给考察,而更关注中国劳动力供给的制度潜力,特别是户籍制度改革可能带来的劳动力供给潜力。时至今日,户籍改革本质上是一个与城市化机制相伴的公共服务问题,涉及劳动力、土地、财税管理体制的相互联系。以集体建设用地入市为核心的土地改革和配套财税体制改革,有助于推动户籍改革,对中国应对劳动力短缺具有重要意义:从短期看可缓解劳动力短缺,从中长期看将有助于中国提升劳动力技能,最终推动产业结构升级和国际竞争力提高。这样的改革也是可行的:以城中村改造模式创新进行的增量改革不仅有助于流动人口永久定居,还有助于地方财政、城市化乃至整个发展模式的转型。

As wages of China’s migrant workers increased fast in the past several years, some argue that China has reached the 'Lewis Turning Point' in economic development. However, others believe that China’s countryside still has a lot of surplus labor. In this article we argue that China’s current labor shortage in low- and mid-end sectors is largely an institutional shortage caused by the Hukou system and rising home prices. The Hukou system and high home prices in the cities have worked together to constrain permanent family migration from the countryside and impeded labor supply in Chinese cities. We argue that coordinated reforms in China’s Hukou and land system complemented by a local fiscal consolidation through introducing land value-added tax and property tax would help to address the challenges China is facing in its unfinished and distorted urbanization.