基于数值模拟下的中国外汇储备潜在损失分析

Analysis on Potential Losses of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Based on Numerical Simulation

外汇储备余额持续积累加剧了外汇储备资产潜在损失的进一步扩大。文章通过对中国外汇储备积累方式的分析,认为造成外汇储备损失的主要路径有三个:冲销债券的利息支付、国际短期资本的投机和人民币对美元汇率升值。在此基础上,文章数值模拟了不同路径下的外汇储备潜在损失,得出以下结论:一是人民币过快升值会加重我国外汇储备损失,应根据我国金融市场的发展状况,逐步改革汇率体系,令人民币更富弹性;二是改变中国外汇储备管理模式,从以往的被动型、防御型模式变成主动型、投资型模式,一方面逐步放松资本账户管制,允许个人和机构海外投资,另一方面加大中国的主权财富基金——中国投资公司的投资力度和规模,通过市场化手段获得更高收益。

The constantly accumulated foreign exchange reserves lead to further expansion of potential losses of foreign exchange reserves assets. Through the analysis of accumulation ways of foreign exchange reserves in China, this paper considers that the losses are due to three main factors, namely interest payments to write off bonds, the speculation of international short-term capital and the appreciation of RMB against the U. S. dollar. Then, it explores the losses of foreign exchange reserves under different influencing factors by numerical simulation, and reaches the conclusions as follows： firstly, the excessively rapid RMB appreciation gives rise to more losses of foreign exchange reserves, so we should reform the exchange rates system and make RMB more flexible according to the development of financial market in China; secondly, the management mode of foreign exchange reserves should be shifted from passive and defensive mode to proactive and investment-oriented one. On one hand, the controls of capital accounts should be gradually released and individual and institutional overseas investment should he permitted; on the other hand, the investment of China＇ s sovereign wealth fund, namely China Investment Corporation, should expand and gain more benefits through marketization.