中国国际储备适度规模测度1994～2009——基于效用最大化分析框架的数值模拟

A Research on Optimal Demand for China's International Reserves:a Numerical Simulation Based on a Framework of Utility Maximization Dated from 1994 to 2009

截至2010年9月,中国以美元计价的储备规模已高达2.64万亿美元。储备高速增长增强了中国国际清偿力和抵御国际金融风险的能力,但也会增加国内通货膨胀压力,弱化货币政策的独立性和有效性,成为影响内外均衡的重要问题。本文基于效用最大化分析框架和平滑代表性经济人消费方法,采用1994~2009年度数据分析中国储备规模的变化和适度规模的确定。我们认为,中国储备适度规模/GDP比率的理想变动区间是25%~30%,从2004年开始,实际储备规模超出适度规模平均为10%左右,基本处在合意变动区间内。但从近期储备存量走势来看,适度储备规模缺口存在加速增大的趋势。在储备管理方面,中央银行在运用国际储备进行资金运营和投资时要注意加强对潜在金融风险的监管。

China has accumulated a large amount of international reserves since 2002 and the accumulation reached 2.64 trillion U.S.dollars at the end of September 2010.In this paper we examine the optimal demand international reserves of China based on a framework of utility maximization and consumption smooth approach.The numerical simulation shows that the theoretical average optimal ratio of reserve/GDP is 28.9% in the sample.We conclude that the optimal ratio of reserve/GDP is 30%~40% and that of the actual reserves is in a relatively desirable range with a gap of 15% compared with the optimal ratio.