基于亚洲六国宏观数据的我国金融危机预警系统研究

Research on an Early Warning System for Financial Crisis in China:Evidence Based on Macroeconomic Data from Six Asian Countries

本文从宏观层面研究我国对外开放和经济发展进程中面临的金融风险,并探讨内、外部风险演变为金融危机的机制和途径,在此基础上构建出符合我国宏观经济运行状况的金融危机早期预警系统,然后选取一系列有关国民经济、金融发展、国际收支和全球经济状况的指标,并使用中国、韩国、泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和菲律宾亚洲六国宏观数据进行实证分析,发现国内信贷规模与GDP的比率、广义货币M2与外汇储备的比率、实际产出增长率和外汇储备增长率对防范我国金融危机具有重要的预警作用,而且我国经济现存的内、外失衡是引发金融危机的隐患。

This paper analyzes various types of financial risks as China deepens its economic reform and opening to the outside world,including internal and external macroeconomic risks as well as their formation and transmission mechanisms into full-fledge financial crisis.The paper establishes an early warning system for financial crisis based on a number of domestic and foreign economic indicators,such as domestic output,financial development,international balance and global economic conditions.Using the data from six Asian countries,including China,Korea,Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia and Philippines,the paper finds that domestic credit to GDP ratio,M2 to foreign reserve ratio,the growth rate of real output growth and the growth rate of foreign reserve are important in predicting financial crisis,and that the internal and external imbalance of China＇s macro-economy poses a serious threat to the country＇s financial stability.