工业化与信息化发展的优先度研究

Study on Priority of Industrialization and Informatization

本文将改革开放以来中国信息化发展分为传统信息化与现代信息化两个阶段,然后用格兰杰因果检验研究这两个阶段工业化与信息化的因果关系,并用LOG ISTIC成长曲线模拟二者发展规律的特点。结果发现,信息化与工业化之间的互动关系较弱,信息化仅在滞后一年的情况下对工业化有促进作用,而工业化对信息化的促进作用则被大大滞后了,信息化的发展滞后于工业化的发展,信息化进入成长期的时间要晚于工业化,但进入成熟期的时间又早于工业化,成长曲线属于典型的"晚熟早衰"型,原因可能有信息产业缺乏核心技术、信息化的发展到了相对平稳阶段、信息化投入不足、信息资源的利用效率有待提高等等。

This paper analyzes the relation between industrialization and informatization based on Grange causality test and Logistic curve after classifying informatization into two periods.The results show the relation between industrialization and informatization is very weak.A year lag of informatization is useful to industrialization and industrialization＇s contribution to informatization lags greatly.Informatization growth period lags industrialization and informatization maturation stage is earlier than industrialization.Lack of core technology,invest,lower efficiency may be the main reason.