对中国汽车千人保有量的预测与分析

The Prediction and Analysis on Motor Vehicles Per 1000 People in China

我国汽车千人保有量的快速增长期将出现在2017～2034年之间，汽车产业在快速增长期的发展速度将超过当时日本汽车产业的发展速度。汽车产业的快速发展已经带来环境、能源、道路建设等方面的问题，为了避免因汽车产业发展速度过快而激化各种矛盾，政府与汽车生产企业应当进行政策和策略调整；媒体应积极倡导绿色出行、健康出行、节能环保等消费新理念，杜绝奢华之风，引导全社会高度关注汽车发展的“外部不经济性”；用户应学会理性消费．在考虑自己使用汽车经济性的同时，关注汽车的“社会经济性”，为缓解交通压力、减缓空气污染、节约能源作出应有贡献。

The rapid development of auto industry has brought us with so many problems in terms of environment, energy and road construction. To eliminate conflicts brought by the rapid development of auto industry,the government and auto enterprises should make necessary policy and strategic adjustments; the medias should advocate such new consumption ideas as ＂green and health travling＂and ＂energy conservation and environmental protection＂ and arouse more attentions from the whole society to ＂external diseconomy＂; the users should fully understand the concept of rational consumption and pay more attention to the ＂social economy＂ of autos and make contribution to releasing transportation pressure,pollution reduction and energy conservation.