中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性

The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in different climatic regions in China

利用一个简单的月水量平衡模型,模拟了位于中国不同气候区的21个典型流域的径流量过程,采用假定的气候情景,分析了河川径流量对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,所采用的月水量平衡模型能够较好地模拟不同气候区的月流量过程,21个典型流域的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数大多超过65%,水量平衡误差也均控制在1%以内。黄河以北干旱半干旱地区的典型流域径流量对气温和降水变化的响应敏感,其次为华中、华南半湿润区和湿润区,西部高寒山区径流对气候变化的响应最弱。因此,中国适应气候变化的重点应集中在干旱半干旱地区。

Using a simple water balance model,monthly runoffs were simulated for 21 catchments with different climatic conditions in China.The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in these catchments was further studied for hypothetical climate change scenarios.Results show that monthly runoffs can be well simulated by the simple water balance model,the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient on these catchments are greater than 65% and the corresponding average relative errors are less than 1%,and there is large spatial variations in the sensitivity of runoff in response to hypothetical climate change scenarios.It appears that runoff is most sensitive to the change in temperature and precipitation in arid and semi-arid catchments over the north Yellow River region,the sensitivity is less significant in humid and semi-humid catchments over regions of Central and South China,while almost no sensitivity in alpine regions in West China.Thus,the climate change adaptation in the water sector should focus on arid and semi-arid regions in China.