基于事故统计分析的盐岩地下油/气储库风险评价

Risk assessment of salt cavern oil/gas storage based on accident statistical analysis

基于国外盐岩地下油气储备库曾发生过的重大事故的统计资料,采用风险矩阵法对盐岩储备库在建设和运营过程中的存在的重大风险进行了评价,分析了储备库重大事故的发生概率、风险等级、事故类型以及引发事故的主要原因,为我国盐岩储备库在建设和运营中的风险管理提供理论依据。研究结果表明,单个盐穴在建设和运营过程中发生重大事故的统计概率为1.51%,风险等级介于三级和四级之间,属于基本可接受的风险,但必须制定防范、监控措施;事故类型可分为油气渗漏、腔体失效和地表沉陷,其中油气渗漏事故的风险等级为三级,属于可接受风险,其他类型的事故风险等级均为二级,属于可容许风险;引发事故的原因主要是套管破损、蠕变过量和人为失误,其次还有地面装置损坏和盖层失效。

Based on the statistics of salt cavern oil/gas storage accidents abroad,a study of salt cavern oil/gas storage risk assessment is conducted using risk matrix analysis in order to provide statistical proof for the risk management during construction and operation.This thesis analyzes the salt cavern oil/gas storage＇s probability of tremendous accident,risk grade,accident types and the main accident causes.Research shows that the accident probability of a single salt cavern during construction and operation is 1.51%,and the general risk grade is between acceptable and unacceptable,so the related departments should pay more attention on its risk prevention mechanism;three main types of the tremendous accidents are oil and gas leakage,cavern failure and earth surface subsidence respectively;different from other two types whose risk grades are permissible,the risk grade of oil and gas leakage is acceptable,which calls for special attention;the most important causes of these accidents are casing failure,excessive creep and human error,and also overground setting failure and caprock breakage.