广州市气象因素与脑卒中发病的初步研究

Meteorological factors and onset of stroke in Guangzhou：a preliminary correlation study

目的：探讨气象因素对广州市居民脑卒中发病的影响,尝试建立脑卒中发病的气象预报方程.方法：收集2006年8月1 日至2007年10月22日广州市每日呼叫＂120＂指挥中心救治的脑卒中发病资料数据,及广州市每日气象数据,以脑卒中发病人数作为因变量,以气象因素作为自变量,运用单因素相关分析和多因素逐步回归分析分别考察每日、每周脑卒中发病人数与同期气象因素的关系,找出相关的关键气象因素,建立发病预报方程.结果：1.广州市脑卒中发病有明显的昼夜变化规律.一天中以上午8至12时因脑卒中发病呼叫120人数较多,尤其是上午10时左右为高峰.2.广州市脑卒中的发病有季节性差异.冬春季（12月-5月）相对高发,夏秋季（8月-11月）相对低发.3.广州市脑卒中的日发病人数与当天的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均水汽压、日平均露点温度呈显著负相关;与日平均气压呈显著正相关（r分别为-0.298、-0.272、-0.311、-0.273、-0.287、0.268）.4.广州市脑卒中周发病人数与气象因素有更高的相关性.5.广州市脑卒中日发病人数的回归方程（预测方程）为：Y日=（19.815-0.230×日最低气温）×1.00008n（n为距离2006年8月1日的天数）.6.广州市脑卒中周发病人数的回归方程（预测方程）为：Y周=（141.451-1.760×日最低气温）×1.00057n（n为距离2006年8月1日的周数,日最低气温为周中位数）.结论：广州市脑卒中发病有季节性和昼夜变化规律;气象因子中日最低气温与脑卒中发病相关性最大.

Objective：To explore the impacts of meteorological factors on stroke occurrence in Guangzhou residents and to establish an equation that predicts the occurrence of stroke by using meteorological data. Methods： Daily stroke-related calls to Guangzhou ＂120＂ First-aid Steering Center and day-to-day meteorological data in Guangzhou between ＂Aug 1,2006 and Oct 22,2007 ,were retrieved. With cases of stroke as the dependent variable and meteorological factors as the independent variables, univariate and multifactorial stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the contemporary correlation between daily/weekly incidence of strokes and meteorological factors, so as to identify relevantly crucial meteorological factors for establishment of an equation that best predicts onset of strokes. Results： 1. The occurrence of stroke in Guangzhou appeared to follow a distinct pattern of circadian variation. Stroke-related calls to 120 were more likely to be recorded during 8am - 12am of the day,especially at around 10am where there was a peak. 2. The onset of strokes in Guangzhou showed a pattern of seasonal variation,with more cases winter and spring months （December to May） and fewer in summer and autumn months （August to November）. 3. The daily stroke occurrence in Guangzhou was negatively correlated with the mean, maximum, minimum temperatures ,mean vapor pressure and mean dew point temperature, and positively with mean atmospheric pressure, of the same day （r = - 0. 298, - 0. 272, - 0.311, - 0. 273, - 0. 287, 0. 268, respectively）. 4. More significant correlations were found between the weekly stroke occurrence in Guangzhou and meteorological factors. 5. The regression equation （predictive equation ） of dai｜y stroke occurrence in Guangzhou was formulated as YD = （ 19. 815 - 0.230 × daily minimum temperature） × 1. 00008^n（ n = the number of days from August 1,2006）. 6. The regression equation （predictive equation） of weekly stroke occurrence in Guangzhou was formulated as YW = （ 141. 451 - 1. 760 ×daily minimum temperature）× 1. 00057n （n = the number of weeks from August 1,2006; daily minimum temperature = weekly median）. Conclusion ：The stroke occurrence in Guangzhou was found to show seasonality and circadian variation. The occurrence of stroke was most closely correlated with daily minimum temperature, among all meteorological parameters.