模式结果输出与统计方法结合预报黑龙江省2010～2050年降水变化

Heilongjiang Province precipitation forecast of 2010-2050 with the model output and statistical method

使用近10 a降水资料,对Cccma、Ccsr、Gfdl、Csiro和Hadley海-气数值模式,模拟结果与实况进行气候态比较与u检验。结果表明：采用其中相对较好的4个模式模拟输出的降尺度结果,作为因子构建多元回归方程,进行降水气候预报。2010~2050年气候预报结果：未来40 a累计降水量较常年在减少,其中2010~2019年降水较常年稍多一些;2020~2029年偏少较多一些,有干旱发生;其它时段降水无明显变化。

Using recent 10a precipitation data of Cccma,Ccsr,Gfdl,Csiro and Hadley sea-air numerical model,its output simulation Drop scale results was compared with live normal climate and u inspection was done.Choosing four better model simulations of the results as factors,multiple regression equations was constructed and precipitation climate prediction was done.Climate prediction results of 2010-2050 are as follows： the cumulative rainfall of future 40a is reducing,raifall of 2020-2029 would reducing a little bit more,some drought would occur;2010-2019＇s precipitation is more than normal year,other years precipitation is normal.