基于因素影响的电力系统短期负荷预报方法的研究

STUDY OF SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON INFLUENCING FACTORS

文章深入研究了天气和特别事件因素对电网负荷的影响；建立了因素影响的负荷预报模型；确定了有效的算法；形成了实用化应用软件；并应用到华北地区京津唐电网。实际应用中，该方法提高了短期负荷预报精度，使短期负荷预报软件达到真正的实用化水平。

This paper thoroughly researches the effect of weather factors and special events on electric power load. A load forecasting model based on influencing factors is established. and a effective algorithm is also produced.A practical software package has been formed and applied to Beijing－Tianjin－Tang shan Power System, which improves the precision of short－termload forecasting and makes the short－term load forecasting package into practical phase.