大陆台商投资集中地区与台湾贸易之就业效应研究

Effect of Cross-strait Trade on Employment in the Taiwan-invested Concentrated Areas

采用1994-2008年8个省市的面板数据,对大陆台商投资集中地区与台湾贸易的就业效应进行探讨。研究结果表明,大陆台商投资集中地区的对台出口对就业具有显著的正向影响,而自台进口则对其就业具有挤出效应,而且自台进口对就业的挤出效应大于出口对就业的促进效应。另外,台商投资集中地区经济增长对就业有显著的正向影响,而且经济增长的就业效应明显大于对台出口的就业效应。资本产出比对就业产生显著的负向影响,表明在台商投资集中地区存在一定程度资本替代劳动的现象。

This paper uses panel data approach to analyze the employment effect of the cross-strait trade in the Taiwan-invested concentrated areas with a panel data of eight regions over the period of 1994-2008.The results reveal that the exports from China's Mainland to Taiwan have a significant positive impact on employment,while imports from Taiwan have a significant negative impact,which means the exports will lead to employment growth,and the import exist the crowding-out effects.In addition,capital input ratios has a negative impact on employment,showing that there is an obvious phenomenon that capital replaces labor in the Taiwan-invested concentrated areas.