利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业影响的发展过程

Development Process of Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity Based on Crop Models

模型模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径,得到了广泛关注和应用。本文着重介绍了利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业生产影响的发展过程,即从最初通过人为改变气候参数模拟气候变化对农业的可能影响,到与气候情景结合模拟未来气候变化对农业的可能影响及近年来与其它模型结合综合模拟未来气候变化对农业的影响,并通过对气候变化农业影响模型模拟研究中经验模型与机理模型、站点尺度与区域尺度、确定性气候情景与概率气候情景几个关键问题的评述,指出了存在的问题及未来发展趋势。

Simulation modeling is a particularly important tool for estimating the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity,so as to attract much attentions and applications.The development process of modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity was given,including the modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by changing climate parameters artificlally,linking to climate scenarios,and integrating with other models for compositive simulations.Basing on the analysis on the key issues of making choice between empirical and mechanistic models,field and region scale,determined and probabilistic climate scenarios,the indeterminacy and problems existed and prospects were given.