咸阳气候变化及其对农作物气候生产力的影响

Analysis of Climate Change and its Influence on Climatic Productivity of Crops in Xianyang

利用咸阳1960-2009年气象资料,主要应用Thornthwaite Memoriai气候生产力模型、Kriging插值法等对当地近50a气温、降水和气候生产力的时空变化进行分析。结果显示:(1)咸阳近50a暖干化趋势明显,增温突变发生在1994年,降水量减少突变发生在1984年;气候生产力以-70.4kg.hm-2.10a-1的速率减小且在1984年发生突变减少。(2)近50a来,咸阳的年平均气温北低南高,变差系数北部大南部小,气候倾向率东北增温强于其他地区;年降水量北多南少,变差系数北小南大,气候倾向率是西、北部减少趋势大于东南;气候生产力及其变差系数都是由北向南递增,其气候倾向率除旬邑地区略有增长外其他地区都为明显减少趋势。(3)假定不同气候变化情景下分别计算当地气候生产力可知,"暖湿型"的气候环境对咸阳农业生产最有利,增产范围为5.89%～11.44%;"冷干型"气候环境对农业生产最不利,减产范围为6.3%～13.11%,中西部地区作物增产潜力最大,在49%～62%,咸阳目前的气候暖干化趋势对农业生产不利。

The paper mainly used the meteorological data of Xianyang,Shaanxi province,from 1960 to 2009 and methods of statistical analysis,such as Thornthwaite Memoriai climatic productivity model and Kriging interpolation method,to analyze the space and time change characteristics of temperature,precipitation and the climatic productivity of the last 50 years and the driving factors that affect the yields of crops.The results indicated that（1） the warming-drying climate tendency was very obvious of Xianyang in the last 50 years,the sudden warming occurred in 1994,and the sudden decrease in precipitation occurred in 1984;the climatic productivity decreased by-70.4kg·ha-1·10y-1 and in 1984 it decreased in a sudden.（2）The annual mean temperature of the north area of Xianyang was lower than that of the south area;the coefficient of variation of the north area was higher than the south one;the climate inclination rate was the warming tendency of the northeast and it was stronger than that of the other areas.The annual mean precipitation of the north area was larger than that of the south area;but the coefficient of variation of the north area was less than that of the south area;the climate inclination rate which was the decrease trends of the northwest was more than that of the southeast.The climatic productivity and its coefficient of variation were increasing gradually from north to south;the climate inclination rate significantly decreased except Xunyi county area.（3）The warm-wet climatic environment was the most advantageous to the agricultural production of Xianyang,the increase in production was 5.89%～11.44%;the cold-dry climatic environment was the most disadvantageous to agricultural production,the production decrease scope was 6.3%～13.11%,the potential crop production increase of the mid-west area was the biggest,the potential production increase was 49%～62%,the warming-drying tendency of climate was disadvantageous to agricultural production.