定量风险评价在炼化一体化项目中的应用

Application of quantitative risk assessment in integration of refining and petrochemical

本文阐述了定量风险评价的指标、模型和一般程序,给出了定量风险评价的标准,采用定量风险评价的方法对某企业规划建设的炼化一体化项目进行个人风险和社会风险水平计算。个人风险计算结果表明,该炼化一体化项目所在厂区内没有出现1×10-3的风险等值线,1×10-4、1×10-5和1×10-6的风险等值线也没有超出厂区边界,说明该炼化一体化项目厂区内部和周边人员所面临的个人风险是可以接受的。社会风险计算结果表明,该炼化一体化项目的社会风险曲线处在可容许区范围内,没有进入不可容许区和ALARP区,说明该项目的社会风险也是可以接受的。本文采用的定量风险评价方法可为规划或已建炼化一体化项目进行风险水平评估提供必要的参考依据。

The index model and procedure of quantitative risk assessment method are described,and corresponding evaluative criteria is presented in the paper.The individual risk and social risk of some integration of refining and petrochemical are calculated.The individual risk calculation results show that 1×10-3 risk contour line is not found,and 1×10-4,1×10-5,1×10-6 risk contour lines are not beyond of the border of factory,so the individual risk both internal and external staff of the factory face is acceptable.The social risk calculation results show that social risk curve is found in the acceptable region,and not in the intolerable region or ALARP region,so the social risk of integration of refining and petrochemical is also acceptable.The quantitative risk assessment method presented in the paper can be used for reference to the risk assessment of panning or established engineering for integration of refining and petrochemical.