经济增长与环境污染的库兹涅茨曲线分析与预测--以宁夏为例

Analysis and Prediction on the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Ningxia

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,选取1991—2007年宁夏经济与环境数据,建立经济发展与工业"三废"排放量以及生活污水排放量的计量模型,分析它们的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因。研究发现,宁夏工业废水排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈"U"形曲线,工业废气和固体废弃物排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线均呈倒"N"形曲线,第一次下降的拐点分别出现在2015年和2007年,生活污水排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈正"N"型。结果表明,宁夏工业废水、废气以及生活污水排放量随着经济的发展仍处于上升期,环境污染物排放量EKC的转折点尚未达到。参照发达国家经验,同时结合宁夏"十二五"规划,预计到2020年宁夏人均GDP达到10 000美元时,工业废气和固体废弃物将出现EKC的拐点,工业废水排放量和生活废水排放量不能出现拐点。同时,根据污染物和经济发展的分析结果,提出了不同污染物的防治措施及建议。

Using the data of economy and environment in 1991—2007 to establish econometrics models to describe the relations between economical growth and environmental pollution and analyse the characteristics of Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC）.The results shows that the industry water waste EKC of Ningxia which forms the U curve;industry waste gas and solid waste EKC form inverted-N,the decreasing turning point will appear in 2015 and 2007;domestic sewage EKC forms N.In the whole,the emissions of industry wastes and domestic sewage are still large and the ECK has not reached the turning point.According to the experience of advanced developed country and Ningxia ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂,industry waste gas and solid waste will show EKC turning point when per capita GDP arrive at 10000 dollar,while the industry water waste and domestic sewage can not.Based on the analysis of quantity of pollution and economic development,it is import to make different suggestions and countermeasures on prevention and control of pollution.