短期气候预测的预报集成方法试验研究

The ensemble forecasting study for short term climate prediction

依据武汉市 ６ 月、７ 月降水距平百分率 ３ 种预测模型的１１ 年独立样本试验资料，进行了预报集成方法的试验研究．通过 ４ 种方案共 ６ 种集成方法的试验比较得出：集成预报模式比原预报模式总体误差得到改善，采用不同的集成方法，同一原始模式的权重系数可以不同。

Based on the data set of eleven years independent test of Wuhan precipitation anomalies (in percent of normal) in June and July by three models, the ensemble forecasting technique is investigated. Through four schemes, six ensemble forecasting models are established. Compared with the raw models, the total error of the ensemble forecasting model is reduced. By different ensemble forecasting technique the weighting coefficient of the same raw model may be changed. Forecasting ability of the ensemble model depends greatly on the raw model.