房地产价格波动的储蓄效应研究:1997—2008——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

The Study on the Fluctuations of the Real Estate Price and the Saving Effect:1997—2008——Based on the Empirical Test of the Provincial Panel Data

本文利用1997～2008年间的省际面板数据,对房地产价格和居民储蓄之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验。理论分析表明,区域和省际间实证结果的差异,主要缘于房价对储蓄特殊的影响机理:被动储蓄效应和结构储蓄效应。此外,房价对储蓄的影响还存在间接储蓄效应,这个效应说明房价在短期对储蓄具有正面影响,在长期对经济发展结构具有负面影响。实证结果显示:在全国范围、中部和西部地区,房价与储蓄存在高度显著的正相关关系,即存在明显的储蓄效应,但东部一些省份的估计结果却显示房价对储蓄的影响不显著。

Based on the provincial panel data during 1997 -2008, this paper analyzes and tests the relationship between the real estate price and the resident savings. The empirical results show that the real estate price and the savings have notable positive correlation in the nationwide, the middle and the west. But the estimated results show that the influence of the real estate price on the savings is not notable in the east and some provinces. Theoretical analysis shows that the difference of the regional and provincial empirical results mainly due to the special influence mechanism between the real estate price and the savings： passive saving effect and structure saving effect. In addition, there is indirect saving effect between the real estate price and the savings. The effect shows that the real estate price has positive influence on savings in the short term, and has negative impact on the structure of the economic development in the long term.