中国不同时期经济发展与碳排放的关联分析

Correlation Analysis of Relationship of Economic Development and Carbon Dioxide Emission in Different Periods of China

经济的快速发展是碳排放的主要驱动因素。为解释中国经济增长与碳排放量的关系,文章引用碳排放量分解模型,对中国1978-2009年碳排放量进行较为精确的测算,并分析碳排放的趋势及其特点。在此基础上,采用灰色相对关联度方法,分阶段测算不同历史时期下经济发展与碳排放量的关联度。结果表明:从碳排放的增长速度上看,1996-2003年,碳排放增速最慢,2003-2009年碳排放增速最快。从经济增长与碳排放的关联度上看,1996-2003年经济发展与碳排放的关联度最大,1978-1996年经济发展与碳排放的关联度最小。文章进而解释了中国不同历史阶段经济增长与碳排放之间存在差异的原因,并提出减少碳排放的对策建议。

Rapid economic development is main driving factor for carbon emissions.In order to explain the relationship of economic development and carbon emissions,carbon emissions decomposition analysis model was established to estimate annual carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2009,trends and characteristics of carbon emissions were analyzed as well.On this basis,grey relational analysis method was used to calculate the correlation of economic development and carbon emissions in different periods.Results showed that from the perspective of carbon emissions growth rate,carbon emissions had the slowest growth from 1996 to 2003,while the fastest growth in carbon emissions from 2003 to 2009.From the perspective of correlation of economic development and carbon emissions,the maximum correlation period was from 1996 to 2003,while the minimum correlation period was from 1978 to 1996.Then the reasons for the discrepancies were analyzed,and some suggestions to reduce carbon emission of China were also proposed.