江西城镇老年公寓的需求分析预测

The Demand Analysis of Urban Apartment for the Aged in Jiangxi

近年来,人口老龄化问题越来越突出。加强老年公寓的建设,是解决传统家庭尤其是独生子女家庭父母养老的发展趋势。同时,加强老年公寓的筹划与建设,也有利于保持经济稳定增长、缓解社会就业压力。本文通过Markov链模型和年龄移算法等方法测算老年人口比例,对我省城镇老年公寓的需求进行分析预测,并提出了相应的发展目标建议。

Recently,aged tendency of population is more and more serious.Increase the input and construction of apartment for the aged,can solve tradition family＇s edowment problem,especially the only-child family.At the same time,increasing the plan and construnction of apartment for the aged is beneficial to maintain steady economic development and lighten unemployment pressure.This paper use the model of Markov and age process algorithms to caculate the elder population,forcast the demand of urban apartment for aged in Jiangxi,and give the advice for the developing goal.