海南国民经济关系回归模型

Regression model on national economy relationship of Hainan province

在建设国际旅游岛的背景下,海南的经济发展状况备受关注。本文从海南自身特点出发,选择了与该省经济发展关系最为密切的三个行业,即旅游业、房地行业和农业,以搜集到的22年的经济数据为样本,运用SPSS统计分析软件,建立了海南国内生产总值与农业总产值、房地行业总产值和旅游业总收入的多项式回归模型。模型的基本检验以及进一步检验均通过,而且拟合效果非常理想,所有拟合值均落在95%置信区间之内。利用此模型预测海南2009年国内生产总值,与实际值的相对误差为2.6%,与对数国内生产总值的相对误差为0.36%,表明所建立的模型是非常合适的。该模型可以定量地刻画出三大行业在海南国内经济发展中所发挥的作用。模型可以用于预测和控制,为相关部门政策的制定提供一定的科学参考。

Against the background of buicding Hainan international traveling island,the article founded the polynomial regression model,by choosing travel industry,extractive industry and real estate as dependent variables and GDP of Hainan as independent variable.Both basic and advanced model checking were passed,all the fitting values were fallen into the 95% confidence intervals.It got the predicted GDP value of 2009,and the relative error was low to 2.6% and 0.36%.From the model we can see quantitatively the role of the three industries play in Hainan＇s national economy.And the model can be used for forecast or control,which can provide scientific references for departments concerned while making policies.