MM5模式在新疆风能资源详查中的应用试验——以5月为例

A Case Study on Application Experiment of MM5 Model in Wind Energy Resources Detail Survey in Xinjiang

根据2006年5月份NCEP再分析资料,应用MM5对新疆进行的3 km分辨率地面风场的模拟试验表明:(1)模式基本能模拟出新疆风速偏大季节地面风场特征,对300 m、600 m高度处的模拟能力明显优于10 m高度,比10 m高度处的相对误差大多数小1个量级以上,可作为风电场风场预报的潜在工具之一。(2)虽然模式对新疆几大风区近地层10 m高度的模拟能力明显优于其它地区,模拟值与实测值间存在系统性误差,可通过统计订正的方法予以解决,但是仍需要通过某些途径提高模式对边界层的模拟能力,特别是对地形复杂区域、地势陡峭地带的模拟能力。

According to the NCEP reanalysis data in May,2006,the surface wind field experiment with 3km resolution was carried by MM5 model in Xinjiang.The results are revealed as follow：（1） The model could simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of surface wind basically in windy season.Seen from the simulation capacity of the model,the relative error at the height of 300m or 600m was one order less than that of 10m,so that the model could be one of the potential tools in wind fields forecasting for wind farm.（2）Although the simulation capacity at 10m in gale area was better than that in other area,systematic errors existed between the simulated and observed value.Even though it could be settled by method of statistical modification,it was still necessary to improve the model simulating ability to boundary layer wind,especially in the complex terrain areas and the steep areas.