Besag-Newell方法在内蒙古布鲁氏菌病空间聚集性分析的应用初探

Study on Besag-Newell method for spatial clustering analysis on brucellosis in Inner Mongolia

目的分析2004-2007年内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的空间聚集性特征及其流行蔓延趋势。方法运用Besag-Newell方法对2004-2007年内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的发病资料进行分析。结果 2004-2007年均存在空间聚集性的盟市为锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市和乌兰察布市,2006、2007年新出现空间聚集性的盟市为呼和浩特市和包头市;2004-2007年存在空间聚集性的旗县分别为13、20、16和19个;4年间内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的空间聚集性有从中东部向西南部扩展的趋势。结论采用Besag-Newell方法分析布鲁氏菌病的空间聚集性,有助于加深对内蒙古地区布鲁氏菌病空间分布模式和流行蔓延趋势的认识,为相关部门的防控提供理论依据。

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2007.Methods The incidence of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2007 was analyzed by the method of Besag-Newell.Results Within four years,the existence clusters of the alliance were the cities of Xilin Gol Leagueha,Hulunbeier,Wulanchabu,emerging as the aggregation were Hohhot in 2006 and Baotou in 2007;aggregation of counties in the existence of disease from 2004 to 2007 respectively were 13,20,16 and 19 cities.Conclusions Using Besag-Newell to analyze the spatial clustering of Brucellosis can promote the awareness of the spatial distribution pattern and prevalent trend,and provide the basis to control the Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.