摘要
文章以世博会对上海区域经济影响力为视角,选取城市居民最终消费、地区生产总值等9项代表性指标来反映区域经济发展状况,建立自回归移动平均(ARMA)预测模型和客观赋权法准则下的非线性规划(NLP)综合评价模型,定量评估2010上海世博会对上海区域经济的影响力。结果表明:世博会对旅游业总计划投资的影响效果最大,对出口总额和进口总额的影响分列二、三位。在此基础上,利用NLP综合评价模型,可得出世博会对上海区域经济的影响力综合系数为0.29。
This paper focuses on the influence of World Expo on Shanghai regional economy.It selects 9 representative indicators,such as the city residents final consumption,the area GDP,to reflect the regional economies development condition,establishes autoregressive moving average（ARMA） forecast model and the nonlinear programming（NLP） comprehensive evaluation model under objective weighting law,and evaluates the influence of 2010 Shanghai World Expo to the Shanghai regional economy.The result indicates that the influence of World Expo on the tourism total planned investment is biggest.The influence of World Expo on total export and the gross import ranks second and third.Based on this,using the NLP comprehensive evaluation model,this paper finds out the influence comprehensive coefficient of World Expo on the Shanghai regional economy is 0.29.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2011年第8期6-9,共4页
East China Economic Management
基金
全国统计科学研究项目(2009LB023)
仲恺农业工程学院科研项目(g3100039)
