中国出口市场选择与贸易转型升级——基于分类市场的比较研究

Export Market and China's Trade Transformation and Upgrading:Comparative Analysis based on Different Markets

本文从出口市场这一新的视角,实证检验较之于以发达经济体为出口市场,以发展中经济体为出口市场是否更有利于中国出口贸易转型升级。结果表明,中国以发达经济体为出口市场,并非如要素禀赋理论所预期,出口被长期"锁定"在技术含量较低的商品;而以发展中经济体为出口市场,也并非如重叠需求等理论所预期,更有利于中国出口商品的技术含量升级。相反,以发达经济体为出口市场更有利于中国出口贸易的转型升级。本文认为,出现上述结果是中国融入产品内分工这一新的国际分工体系所致。因此,在后危机时代不断提高开放型水平,通过产业政策、科技政策以及利用FDI等,不断向产品内分工体系下的产品"高端"价值链攀升,是中国出口贸易转型升级的有效路径。

From the new perspective,this paper provides an empirical analysis to distinguish whether developing economy as export market has more impact on transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade.But the result shows that,China's exports to developed economies are not confined to lower sophistication as supposed by H-O model,while China's exports to developing economies does not play more important role in upgrading of Chinese export sophistication as supposed by trade theories like overlapping demand.On the contrary,China's exports to developed economies are more conducive to upgrading of Chinese export sophistication, which is mainly resulted from China's integration into international intra-product specialization as we argue.Therefore, in post-crisis era,to deepen opening up to the outside world,and to move up to the higher end of value chain under international intra-product specialization by means of industrial policies,technological policies and FDI policies,may be one of the effective measures in realizing transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade.