基于可靠性等劣化理论的设备寿命周期预估

Prediction of Equipment Life Cycle Based on Equal degradation Theory of Reliability

为了建立以可靠性为中心维修思想下的机械设备维修体制,在已有可靠性性能劣化模型的基础上,分析了大修周期与可靠性的关系,结合产品使用性能要求,提出一种新的可靠性阶段划分的方法,以科学确定机器的大修周期和报废指标,预估设备功能故障状态出现时间,进行机械设备寿命预测。并在此基础上改进RCM分析技术,用来评价故障结果,应用逻辑决断图选择预防性维修工作类型,最后形成更为有效的预防性维修大纲。与传统的寿命预测方法相比,这种方法对实验数据的依赖性低于传统方法。

In order to establish a mechanism of machinery maintenance based on RCM （reliability centered maintenance）, this paper analyzed the relation between overhaul time interval and reliability of machinery on the basis of existing degradation model. A new method for dividing the reliability phases in life - cycle of machinery is proposed to determine the exact overhaul time interval and the scrap indicators. The time of functional failure and life cycle can be predicted by this methods. This paper improved the RCM analyzing technique to evaluate malfunction and applied. logic decision diagram to determine the type of preventive maintenance, based on which a more efficient guideline for preventive maintenance was suggested. This method can also be applied to predict product life and is less dependent on experimental data than traditional product life prediction method.