区域间产业转移定量测度研究——基于区域间投入产出表分析

The Quantitative Study on Inter-Regional Industry Transfer

有关产业转移的研究主要集中在从定性的角度探讨产业转移的类型、动因、模式、效应等,而对产业转移的定量测算却少有研究。本文在严格界定产业转移概念与内涵的基础上,利用区域间投入产出模型建立了定量测算区域间产业转移的方法,并结合中国区域间投入产出表,测算了中国1997—2007年区域间产业转移。结果发现,中国产业转移具有明显"北上"特征,产业向中西部地区转移的趋势并不明显。受消费品生产主要集中在东部地区的影响,消费带动下的产业转移表现为从中西部地区向东部地区转移的趋势。而在出口带动下,东部地区对中西部地区的能源资源需求增加,导致了中西部地区承接了大量资源型产业转移,但机械电子等技术密集型产业还在进一步向东部地区集中。因此,加快东部地区产业向中西部地区转移的步伐仍是中国区域均衡发展的重要任务之一。

The study on industry transfer almostes focus on types, drivers, patterns or effects, and few study pay attention to quantitative measure of industry transfer. On the bases of strict concept and meaning of industry transfer, this article sets up a model to quantify inter-regional industry transfer by using inter-regional input-output table, and then, as an example, measures the industry transfer in China between 1997 and 2007. Two points conclusions could be found from the results： （1）The industry transfer in China has obviously ＂northern oriented＂ characteristic, and the industry transferred to middle and west region is weak in general perspective; ~）Two opposite transfer flows are existing in division perspective. On the one hand, the industry, which is almost machine and electron manufacturing, mostly transfer from middle and western region to eastern region, which is caused by final consumption. On the other hand, the industry, which is almost resources process manufacturing, mostly transfer from eastern region to middle and western region, which is caused by export. So, it＇s important to compel the industry transfer, especially the high technology industry, from eastern region to middle and western region.