汇率变动与贸易余额——基于政策干预和预期因素的模型分析和实证研究

Exchange Rate Change and Trade Balance: An Empirical Analysis Based on Government Intervention and Expectation Factor

文章重点讨论了政策干预下的汇率走势,以及预期因素作用下进口商和消费者的行为模式,在假定马歇尔—勒纳条件成立,汇率变动完全传递给贸易品价格的条件下,研究了汇率变动和贸易余额的关系。认为在政策干预和汇率走势形成稳定预期的条件下,汇率升值不但不能减少贸易逆差,反而扩大贸易逆差,反之反是。文章通过一系列实证检验和对比研究,发现上述作用机制在2005年7月至2008年6月的中美贸易中能够较好地成立。

The paper focuses on the research on the exchange rate change under government intervention and the model of importers＇ and consumers＇ behaviors under the influence of expectation. It assumes that Marshall-Lerner condition is established and exchange rate changes transmit fully to the prices of tradable goods. It conlcudes that in the case of government intervention and market expectation, currency appreciation leads to an increase of trade balance deficit rather than a decrease, and vice versa. A series of empirical studies based on the Sino-American data verify the above model analysis, and in the end, the paper proposes some policy suggestions such as： both China and America should stop exchange rate intervention and promote free trade, and China should upgrade its industrial structure of foreign trade.