我国经济周期波动影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Business Cycle of China

经济周期是指沿着经济发展的总体趋势所经历的有规律的扩张和收缩。经济学界对于经济周期形成的原因存有各种不同的观点,文章对影响我国经济周期波动的主要的宏观经济变量包括消费、物价、政府收支、货币供给量等进行了实证分析,在此基础上得出结论:经济体制改革对我国经济周期波动产生了很大冲击,因此,宏观经济政策使体制改革的波动与经济周期波动呈逆向运行,即在经济周期的上升期实行紧缩经济政策,在下降期实行扩张经济政策。

Business cycle means the overall tendency of economical development which experiences orderly expansion and contraction.The economic educational circle has different viewpoints regarding the reasons why economic cyclical changes exist,and this article carries out a statistical analysis of the main macroeconomic variables which affect our country business cycle undulation including the expense,the price,the government revenue and expenditure,the currency supplies quantity and so on.Based on it,this paper comes to the conclusion that economic system reform of our country has had a very big impact on the business cyclical undulation.Therefore,macroeconomic policy makes the undulations of system reforming and the business cycle present the reversion movement.Namely,in rising time of the business cycle,we should implement the tightening economic policy,and the expansion economic policy in dropping time.