基于变系数模型的山东省人口自然增长率分析及预测

The Analysis and Forecast of Natural Population Growth Rate of Shandong by Varying Coefficient Regression Model

人口的合理建模是人口预测、控制与管理的基础工作,是当前人口研究的热点问题之一.准确地预测人口信息,是制定未来人口发展目标和生育政策等有关人口政策的基础,对研究制定地方经济和社会发展决策具有重要的参考价值.主要利用变系数模型研究山东省人口自然增长率及与之有关的因素,并且对2007年的人口自然增长率进行预测,预测值3.9367‰,实际值3.58‰.

A reasonable model is a basic work of population forecast,control and management and is one of the hot issues of the current population study.To project the information on population accurately is the basic work for making the population policy,such as the goal of the future population development and reproductive policy,which is also of great reference value in making the local economic and social development decision.This paper studied the natural population growth rate of Shandong Province and the related factors＇ trends by varying coefficient model.The natural population growth rate in 2007 is predicted to be 3.9367‰ while the actual value is 3.58 ‰.