摘要
文章以新疆石河子气象局1961—2008年年均气温、年降水量和年均日照观测资料为研究对象,运用趋势拟合方法、Morlet小波和Yamamoto方法分析其趋势变化、周期及突变特性。结果表明:48年中,石河子年平均气温和年降水量呈递增趋势,年均日照呈微弱递减趋势,均有一定的周期性,在不同的年份发生了突变,最后分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响。
In recent years,the global climate change became hot issue,affect the construction of the ecological environment and economic development in China directly.In this paper,based on mean annual temperature,annual precipitation and mean annual sunshine from 1961 to 2008 in Shihezi,analyze its trend changes,characteristics of cycle and mutation using trend fitting method,Morlet wavelet method and Yamamoto method.The results showed that： the tendency of annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation were rising,annual mean sunshine were decreasing trends poorly during 48 years in Shihezi with a certain cycle,and their mutations occurred in different years,finally,analyzed the effection of climate change on agricultural production.
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2011年第2期23-26,34,共5页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
关键词
年均气温
年降水量
年均日照
周期
突变
mean annual temperature
annual precipitation
mean annual sunshine
cycle
mutation
