中部地区典型煤炭城市接续产业响应模式分析及比较

AN ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF RESPONSE PATTERN OF COAL CITIES IN THE CENTRAL OF CHINA

在煤炭城市转型的基础上采取适宜的转型路径和适当的响应模式,是煤炭城市实现可持续发展的必须条件。本文基于产业生命周期发展理论,在确定中部地区典型煤炭城市接续产业的前提下,利用SOFM模型,将中部地区典型煤炭城市发展接续产业响应模式进行了系统分类,并确定了具体的四类响应模式及相应阶段的特征,最后针对城市煤炭城市接续产业响应模式提出了相应的政策建议。

Lots of coal cities in central region of China are the main sources of coal supply for the central and eastern China,however coal cities are typical resource-exhausted cities because the coal resources are non-renewable resources,so the limitation of non-renewable resources determines that it is inevitable and urgent for developing industrial substitution and continuous industries in these coal cities.Taking the coal cities in the central regional of China as a complete unit,this paper discusses its sustainable development of the industrial substitution.Based on the industrial lifecycle theory and the following development theory of superseded industries,this paper quantitatively selects the superseded industries for the coal cities in the central region.Then according to the screenings,the paper makes comprehensive classification and specific analysis of the different cities through SOFM model of artificial neural network,as well as indicates the industrial development countermeasure.Industrial substitution response pattern in the central coal cities is inevitable.Based on the quantitative analysis of industry structure and its evolution mechanism of the coal cities above and according to the theory of follow-up industry substitution,the paper makes quantitative selection of the follow-up industries of the 7 cities.According to the calculations of the leading industries and the potential industries,the paper makes comprehensive classification and analyzes on the development models of the follow-up industries of the 7 cities and proposes the development direction in different growth stage through SOFM.Based on the analysis,with the combination of national and regional development policies,the specific and instructive policy recommendations from two aspects are proposed.Firstly,the industrial substitution and dominant industries should be scientifically selected in views of the above analysis.Secondly,the industrial substitution of the coal cities in the central region of China should be sustainably implemented according to the specific stage of the coal industrial lifecycle.