骊山景区年内客流量峰林结构及成因分析

RESEARCH ON THE TOURISTS' "PEAK-FOREST" STRUCTURE AND ITS CAUSES OF LISHAN SCENIC SPORTS

本文以西安市骊山风景名胜区为例,运用该景区2007年逐日客流量统计数据,分析了景区客流量年内变化规律及影响因素,研究发现:①景区客流量年内变化折线图形成优美的"峰林结构",具有明显的分形特征,呈现周期性、相似性、对称性等特点;②年内客流量存在周内、月内和季节等不同时间尺度的变化,并且以周为基本变化单元,由周变化组合成月变化,月变化组合成季节变化;③在影响景区客流量年内变化的因素中,天气与气候舒适度的变化是主要的自然因素,人们工作与休闲制度是主要的社会因素。本研究,一方面深化和完善了有关旅游流时间变化规律的认识,另一方面也为景区做好旅游接待、合理调控客流量提供了科学依据。

Based on the daily tourist arrivals data of the Li Shan scenic spots in 2007,this paper,using Lotus 1-2-3 software,explores the tourists change over time scales and its influencing factors.The results show that（1） the line of the daily tourist arrivals in 2007 is regular and undulating.It contains many small peaks and then forms a ＂peak-forest＂ structure.The whole-year tourist arrival line is fractal with significant self-similarity and shows periodic,similarity and symmetry features.The data of tourist arrivals change in a weekly circle and the weekly changes are very similar.Two public holiday weeks＇ tourist＇s changes are similar and symmetrical.Tourists changes in winter and summer are and changes in spring and autumn are also anti-similar;（2） there are weekly,monthly and seasonal changes in a whole year,and the weekly change is the most fundamental.Weekly changes combine into monthly and seasonal changes.As to weekly changes,the numbers of tourists goes up to the peak point on weekends.Regarding monthly and seasonal changes,tourist arrivals are waving on a high position in summer and a low position in winter,while tourists are becoming more and more in spring and less and less in autumn.In the two public holiday weeks,tourists are the most in the whole year,and usually the second to fourth days will reach the maximum;（3） weather and climate changes,working and recreation system,destination marketing and important events are the four major factors which lead to the tourist changes.As to the Li Shan scenic spots in 2007,among all the factors,weather and climate change is the most important natural reason while working and recreation system is the main social factor.When weather and climate are proper,scenic of sports will receive more tourists.And on holidays,people have more leisure time and are more likely to go to travel.With the research on the tourists change and its causes,this paper,on the one hand,is to deepen and improve the knowledge about tourists time variation,on the other hand,want to provide scientific bases for tourist reception and the regulation of traffic.