基于灰色关联法的舟曲泥石流灾害影响因素分析

Analysis of influence factors of debris flow disaster in Zhouqu based on grey relevance method

舟曲"8.8"泥石流灾害是新中国成立以来破坏性最强、死亡人数最多、财产损失最大的一次泥石流灾害。通过对舟曲泥石流灾害影响因素的分析,运用灰色关联法,找出了此次泥石流灾害的主要影响因素。分析结果表明,强降雨是"8.8"泥石流灾害产生的直接因素,人为活动是其产生的间接因素;人为活动中,牧业和农业的发展与泥石流的相关度最大,是导致泥石流产生的关键和主导因素。因此要合理地进行农牧业生产,加强植树造林、退耕还林工作;对新修建的水电站要进行生态环境影响评估,尽力减轻自然灾害风险。

A large-scale debrisflow disaster occurred in Zhouqu County, Gansu Province on August 8,2010, which made huge economic losses and people＇s death. Based on grey correlation method, the main influencing factors could be found by the analysis of influence of debris flow hazard in Zhouqu. The results show that,the heavy rainfall is direct dynamic force to cause the debris flow disaster and human＇s activities are the indirect reasons to lead to the geological disaster. The development of agriculture and animal husbandry has the biggest influence on debris flow in all human＇s factors. Author considers that the reasonable development of agriculture and animal husbandry should be planned appropriately. In addition, afforestation or converting cropland to forest should be strengthened, ecological environment impact assessment must be carried out for the new-building hydropower station to reduce natural disasters risk.