推动房价上涨的货币因素研究——基于美国、日本、中国泡沫积聚时期的实证比较分析

On the Monetary Factor Behind the Housing Prices Increase:An Empirical Comparative Analysis of U.S.A.,Japan and China in the Bubble Period

本文从理论上探究了货币量与房价之间的双向联系,分析了不同渠道下两者之间的动态"加速器"机制。从货币结构的视角选用了准货币作为考察货币与房价关系的主要变量进行论证。在此基础上,采用协整VAR模型的框架在货币、资产价格、宏观经济之间建立多变量关系,同时针对美国、日本、中国三个国家的典型房价泡沫积聚时期的数据进行实证比较分析。结果表明三个国家中货币量与房价之间都存在长期均衡关系,巨额货币存量推动房价上涨的力量比较强大而且明显。在资产泡沫积聚时期,推动房价上涨的实体因素不足,最重要的还是货币因素推动。因此,要控制房价过快增长,需要中央银行调整货币政策框架及通胀目标,关注资产价格变化并有效控制货币量。

This paper theoretically explores the two-way links between money supply and housing price and ana- lyzes the dynamic ＂accelerate effect＂ in different channels. The authors choose the quasi-money as the main variable to prove this relationship from the point of view of monetary structure. Then under the CVAR framework this paper sets up a multi-variable relation among money, asset price and macro-economy, making a comparative analysis of U. S. A. , Japan and China in the period of housing price bubbles respectively. The empirical resuits shows that there exists a long-term equilibrium between money supply and housing price and a mass of money stock pushes up housing price distinctly in all three countries. The most important factor that pushes up housing price in the asset bubble period is money stock instead of the real economy. Therefore, the central bank should adjust the monetary policy framework and the inflation target through paying attention to asset price changes and controlling the money stock to avoid the rapid increase in housing prices.