山东省霜冻的气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Climate Variation Characteristics of Frost in Shandong Province

[目的]研究山东省霜冻的气候变化特征。[方法]以秋季或春季日最低地面温度≤0℃作为霜冻指标,利用1961～2008年山东省67个气象监测站的逐日地面最低温度资料,采用气候诊断分析方法,对山东省初、终霜日期和无霜期的变化特征进行了分析。[结果]近48年来,山东省的初、终霜日和无霜期的气候特征具有明显地域差异。初、终霜日和无霜期的极差均为标准差的3倍以上,说明初、终霜日和无霜期离散程度均较大。近48年山东省平均初霜日以1.99 d/10a的速率推迟,终霜日以1.46 d/10a的速率提早,初霜日推迟幅度比终霜日提早幅度大;无霜期以3.42 d/10a的速率延长。从年代际变化来看,初霜日20世纪90年代以后开始明显推迟,终霜日90年代之后明显提早,无霜期是90年代开始明显延长。[结论]该研究为霜冻灾害的预测预防和农作物结构调整提供一定的参考。

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climate variation characteristics of frost in Shandong Province.[Method] The daily minimum surface temperature ≤0 ℃ in autumn or spring was as the frost index.Based on the daily surface minimum temperature data in 67 meteorological observatories of Shandong Province during 1961-2008,the variation characteristics of first,last frost dates and the frost-free period in Shandong Province were analyzed by using the climate diagnosis analysis method.[Result] The climate characteristics of first,last frost dates and the frost-free period had the significant geographical difference in Shandong Province in recent 48 years.The extreme differences of first,last frost dates and the frost-free period were all above the three times of their standard deviations,which illustrated that the dispersion degrees of first,last dates and the frost-free period were all very big.The average first frost date postponed with 1.99 d/10a velocity in Shandong Province in recent 48 years,and the last frost date advanced with 1.46 d/10a velocity.The postponing range of first frost date was bigger than the advancing range of last frost date,and the frost-free period prolonged with 3.42 d/10a velocity.Seen from the interdecadal variations,the first frost date started to obviously postpone,and the last frost date obviously advanced since the 1990s.The frost-free period started to obviously prolong since the 1990s.[Conclusion] The research provided the certain reference for the predication,prevention of frost disaster and the structure adjustment of crops.