股票市场风险与养老金制度的选择

Stock Market Risk and the Selection of Pension Systems

本文运用经验分析方法,发现延长投资期限是降低养老金基金投资风险的有效方法。同时运用时间序列分析的方法对美国股市五年期股票投资的收益率进行分析和预测。文章认为,如果一项社会保障改革方案旨在减轻政府财政负担和提高养老金基金的收益率,在现收现付制度中引入基金积累制度是完全可取的。

By empirical analysis, this paper finds that the extension to investment peri- ods is an effective way to reduce investment risk of pension funds. Then it makes a study and forecast of the earnings rate of five-year stock investment in U S stock market by time series analysis. It believes that the introduction of funded system into pay-as-you-go system is com- pletely desirable, if a plan for social guarantee reform aims at reducing government fiscal burden and raising the earnings rate ofpension funds.