江苏省煤炭消费现状及“十二五”需求组合预测

Analysis of coal consumption in Jiangsu and the demand forecasting during the 12th Five-Year-Plan based on combination models

对现有煤炭需求预测研究进行了文献综述,分析了不同预测方法的优缺点。在对江苏近十年煤炭消费状况分析的基础上,选用了ARIMA模型等预测方法对江苏省"十二五"期间煤炭需求量进行了预测分析,旨在为相关部门决策作参考。组合预测结果为江苏省2011年煤炭需求量为22948.27万t,2015年需求量为27974.62万t。

This article makes a literature review for existing coal demand forecast,and analysises of the merits and demerits of different forecasting methods.Then,based on the analysis of Jiangsu coal consumption in recent decade,I selected ARIMA models et cetera to forecast the coal demand of Jiangsu Province during the twelfth Five-Year-Plan,aimed at providing referenced decision making for the relevant departments.Forecasting the coal demand of Jiangsu is 229482700 tons in 2011,and 279746200 tons in 2015.