主体功能区情景下的土地系统变化模拟

Land System Change Modeling in Main Functional-Oriented Zoning Scenarios

主体功能区要求对国土实施相对严格的空间管制措施,以实现资源生态和社会经济发展的协调。选择黑龙江省哈大齐(哈尔滨-大庆-齐齐哈尔)地区为研究案例,以CLUE-S模型模拟了两种情景下的未来土地系统变化情况,结果表明,在不实施任何空间管制措施的情景下,耕地对草地的蚕食将延续,生态功能持续降低;而在主体功能区建设的情景下,居民地将大幅度扩展,且主要占用盐碱地,同时保持了耕地和生态用地的安全,在一定程度上可缓解土地利用冲突,优化土地利用结构和国土开发格局。

Main functional-oriented zoning（MFOZ） requires more spatial restriction and governance of land system to realize balance development among resources,ecology,economy and society.In this paper,Harbin-Daqing-Qiqihaer region of Heilongjiang Province in china was selected as the study case,and CLUE-S model was used to simulate future changes of land system in two scenarios.The results show that farmland will continue encroach on grassland and ecological functions will degrade correspondingly in the scenario of no spatial restriction and governance,however,build up area will expand largely through encroaching on saline and alkaline land in MFOZ scenario,future land demand of farmland,land for ecological function and city development can be satisfied,and land use conflicts can be solved in a certain extent,land use structure and development patterns can be also optimized.