中国国内生产总值及其相关因素分析

The Study of the Gross Domestic Product of China and the Analysis of Various Determining Factors

自1978年改革开放以来,中国国内生产总值连续高速增长.基于对1978-2008年共31年来中国国内生产总值、固定资产投资、能源消费总量、进出口贸易总额、居民消费、人口数、财政收入等因素的关系研究,提出一个更为合适的对数线性模型,同时给出了该模型中参数的估计方法.研究表明:截止至2008年,中国国内生产总值的增长是不均衡的,而是分阶段的,而且在不同阶段,影响国内生产总值的因素有所不同,并且从经济学角度对所建立的模型给出了合理的解释,结论符合中国实际.

Since the Economic Reform in 1978, the Gross Domestic Product （GDP） of China grows continuously and rapidly. This article studies the relationship among factors such as GDP, fixed assets investment, the total energy expense, total import and export trade, consumer, population, financial income etc in the past 31 years, brings out a more reasonable log-linear model and provides the analysis of the modes in the model. The research shows that till 2008, the growth of GDP is not even but depends on different stages, in different stages; the factors that affect the GDP are different. Moreover, the article provides a reasonable explanation on the built model from an economic perspective and the conclusion matches the real situation in China.