假说的经验支持与理论支持之间的张力——从范式理论和贝叶斯方法的角度看

The Tension between Empirical Support and Theoretical Support of Hypothesis——From the Perspective of Paradigm Theory and Bayesian Method

一个科学假说的确立受到两方面的支持,即经验支持和理论支持。在检验假说的过程中既会出现经验和理论同时支持的情况,也会出现二者作用相反的情况。库恩范式理论和贝叶斯方法可用于说明这两种支持之间的张力关系。根据范式理论,在常规科学时期,理论支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用;在科学革命时期,经验支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用。贝叶斯方法则通过假说的验前概率和验后概率提供了一种将经验支持和理论支持综合起来的检验模式。

The establishment of a scientific hypothesis needs two supports： empirical support and theoretical support.At times Experience and theory support a hypothesis together;at other times they provide contrary forces to that.Kuhn＇s theory of paradigm and Bayesian method can be used to illuminate the tension between those two supports.According to paradigm theory,the theoretical support has decisive effect on the establishment of hypothesis in normal science age,but in the period of scientific revolution,the empirical support has decisive effect on that.Bayesian method provides a mode of test to integrate the empirical support and the theoretical support by prior probability and posterior probability of hypothesis.