基于指标阈值法的森林火险气象等级预报研究

Research of Prediction of Forest Fire Meteorological Level Based on Threshold Indicators Method

利用河北省承德市近7年的温、湿、风、降水和199次森林火灾火警资料,分析各气象要素与森林火灾火警的相关性;通过对预报因子的预处理,利用指标阈值法建立了适合承德市地理气候条件的森林火险等级预报方程与落区预报方程;结合气象数值预报产品建立预报预警平台,从而实现了森林火险等级实况、预报、落区的全自动运行,提高了森林火险等级预报的精度。

Temperature,humidity,wind,precipitation and 199 times forest fires information in past 7 years of Chengde city and were used to analyze the relationship between the meteorological elements and forest fire;Dealing with predictor in advance,forest fire danger rating prediction equation and the districts prediction equation suitable for geographical and climatic conditions of Chengde city were established through the threshold indicators method;Forecast and warning platform were established combined with meteorological numerical forecast products in order to achieve fully automatic operation of forest fire danger rating fact,forecasting,falling area,which improved the prediction accuracy of forest fire danger rating prediction.